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ANONYMOUS
BabbleBee
reply 301 vote 23
 

When will Garth Turner admit he misjudged the housing market?

Some housing market pessimists stand out from the crowd. One of them is Garth Turner. I think Garth Turner could be totally right and Canada housing may be an enormous bubble but I'd like to know if there's a time limit for these sorts of predictions.

What if Canada's housing market cruises along for another 5 years without any major adjustment, will Garth post on his blog that he misjudged things? Considering that housing markets always go up and then down and then up I think predictions of a housing market collapse must have an expiration date.

Without a timeline its kind of like predicting an earthquake in San Fransisco without saying when its gonna occur - tell us something we don't already know.
28
Canada / General Chit-Chat
 
 
 
RYAN MCGOVERN
Senior Buzzer
reply 642 vote 117
 
 
3 BEST REPLY
"A guy says if you pay him, he can make it rain. You pay him. If and when it rains, he takes the credit"

-Maurice Levy, The Wire
 
 
 
AMIT BHANDARI
Buzzer
reply 167 vote 13
 
 
Is this that really, really negative guy who blogs about the end of the earth?
 
 
ANONYMOUS
BabbleBee
reply 301 vote 23
 
 
That's funny - yeah.
 
 
DUSTIN LONGPRE
Buzzer
reply 31 vote 5
 
 
1
I'd say if you are predicting a bubble you get a two year window, three max, for the market to crash. If it doesn't you need to apologize, and if you want, you can re-up on your claim that a bubble is NOW occurring.
 
 
BRAD LOGEL
NewBee
reply 6
 
 
Amen to that. I was just telling my staff the same thing. Anyone can predict a downturn. If it doesn't happen you can just say it's over inflated.
 
 
MOO STASH
BabbleBee
reply 301 vote 21
 
 
I do not think that he will ever admit that he misjudged the market. He will continue to spread his gospel, then when something does eventually happen he will take credit as being the prophet.
He has been spreading his word for way over two years, which IMO is way too long to be able to take credit for any type of prophesy.
For him to be taken more seriously, he must put a more specific timeline together.
 
 
MICHAEL WINESTONE
Buzzer
reply 52 vote 3
 
 
Garth is really way out to lunch..... BUT, the general rule is always....what goes up, must come down. We've been on a great run in real estate, but soon enough we have to allow affordability to catch up to prices. Too many people are over-leveraged right now due to low rates and a bit of a false sense of security with equity in homes being their biggest asset.
I am not saying anything is going to crash.....but something has to give a bit soon or we may have some real problems.
Michael
 
 
CARY CHAPNICK
Buzzer
reply 117 vote 13
 
 
The Toronto market isnt healthy now with lack of supply but showings, sales volume and buyers are out there.
I think 2011 will be a great year for sellers....with prices moving upwards
 
 
ROY BHANDARI
Senior Buzzer
reply 512 vote 60
 
 
@ Cary - I don't have the exact numbers (researching it as we speak) but I attended a seminar that told us that even with all the new buildings going up, Toronto is currently undersupplied and will be for the next 4-6 years based on our starts vs. new people coming into the city every year.
I'm working on a blog post that looks specifically at the downtown core in terms of listing inventory (typically for a balanced market we should have approximately 4-5 months of inventory, I believe Toronto right now has about 2-3 months of inventory).
 
 
AMIT BHANDARI
Buzzer
reply 167 vote 13
 
 
Yeah, the seminar was fantastic and gave some very interesting facts and figures. We were also told the same thing by TREB, and CMHC.
 
 
MOO STASH
BabbleBee
reply 301 vote 21
 
 
Sooooo? Cary, Roy and Amit, are the three of you agreeing that the housing market it undersupplied?
If so, we will be in a sellers market, but for an unknown amount of time.
And, as such, therefore Garth is wrong?
Does anyone have any stats on this? I remember seeing the same thing from RealNet recently, and will see if I can find it.
 
 
AMIT BHANDARI
Buzzer
reply 167 vote 13
 
 
2
^^ Honest answer is: I don't know! No one can really predict what will happen next week, let alone next year. You have to understand that there are multiple forces at play when it comes to the market. Before looking at the real estate market, economists, must take into consideration a multitude of variables, such as:
-Interest rates a year from now
-Gasoline and food costs a year from now
-If the average household income is appreciating at the rate of inflation
-The level of immigration
-The volatility of world financial market’s
-The impact of the US upon Canadian market’s
-Employment levels
-The state of national economies
These amongst other key economic indicators form the foundation for outlooks on the real estate markets.
To produce outlooks for the real estate market economists must study social and demographic changes that drive demand. Factors may include:
-Number of first time home buyers
-Consumer preference for urban V.S Suburban living
-Consumer confidence
Consumer behavior is very difficult to predict and have a huge impact on the real estate market. Consumer confidence is the 'fuel' that drives real estate demand. If this confidence continues, well...let's see!
I do have some stat's regarding house prices, and affordability index - these are also very interesting stat's: http://www.amitandroy.com/marketwatch/just-what-is-the-market-upto (Click the images!)
 
 
LEONARD THE BEE
Buzzer
reply 162 vote 4
 
 
Thanks to Brian Duffy, an avid LFC fan and someone who is intrigued by the current Canadian economy, who says:
Brian Duffy said:
Turner could be wrong, but do you think It can rise forever? Its peaking right now.... The #'s don't add up anymore. Pretty easy math...

Source: www.twitter.com/bduff54
 
 
MARCO DIFOTI
Senior Buzzer
reply 550 vote 45
 
 
Brian Duffy said:
Turner could be wrong, but do you think It can rise forever? Its peaking right now.... The #'s don't add up anymore. Pretty easy math...

What numbers do not add up?? Rental vs payment?
Why is it peaking right now?
 
 
BRIAN ELIZABETH
Buzzer
reply 166 vote 10
 
 
With today's release of the RealNet numbers, I think it is apparent that Garth has been proven wrong for yet an other year. Who knows what 2011 will bring, but when looking at the GTA, it has been too long of an up for him to be considered a prophet.
 
 
MATTHEW SLUTSKY
Senior Buzzer
reply 2299 vote 171
 
 
Looks like the last post on this subject was January 20, 2011. It is over a year later, and no bubble popping.
 
 
ANONYMOUS
BabbleBee
reply 301 vote 23
 
 
1
I think at this stage Garth Turner has to issue a public apology.
 
 
MARCO DIFOTI
Senior Buzzer
reply 550 vote 45
 
 
^I dont think he needs to issue a public apology for being wrong, and potentially convincing people to walk away from huge returns on their money, but he should admit that he was wrong!
 
 
BEN RABIDOUX
Buzzer
reply 10
 
 
I'll add the same comment I just tweeted to BBH:
It's inarguable that the bears (self included) have been wrong. I've been expressing concern about the market since late 2010 and suggested that on balance of probabilities, outright price declines were likely and could be steep in places like Vancouver and the TO condo market.
I suppose a statute of limitations would be useful in preventing "stopped-clock syndrome", so I suppose I suppose I'll put it to the forum using a real life example. Consider economist Dean Baker who first warned of a US housing bubble in 2002, a full four years before prices rolled over. Was he wrong? Did he misjudge? Was he just fortunate to be a "stopped clock" at the right time?
 
 
BEN RABIDOUX
Buzzer
reply 10
 
 
Oops....sorry for all the "I suppose"s. Proof reading = good.
 
 
BEN RABIDOUX
Buzzer
reply 10
 
 
Marco said:
^I dont think he needs to issue a public apology for being wrong, and potentially convincing people to walk away from huge returns on their money, but he should admit that he was wrong!

I'm not a huge fan of GT's investment philosophy, but this statement should strike all forum readers as excessive considering GT advises readers in expensive markets to rent, save difference b/t rent and ownership costs, and INVEST in diversified portfolio. Are they down over the leveraged returns they could have gotten in RE net of expenses and transaction fees? Possibly in some markets. Others, no. But can you directly compare these returns without considering risks involved given the leverage in one of the investments?
 
 
MARCO DIFOTI
Senior Buzzer
reply 550 vote 45
 
 
@Ben, over the past 10 years in the "expensive markets", where else could you have invested to make the return that you would have in property? Without looking at the few anomalies, like Apple :)
Yes. There are risks. But, Garth isn't only talking about "investing", but home-ownership.
 
 
BEN RABIDOUX
Buzzer
reply 10
 
 
Marco said:
@Ben, over the past 10 years in the "expensive markets", where else could you have invested to make the return that you would have in property? Without looking at the few anomalies, like Apple :)
Yes. There are risks. But, Garth isn't only talking about "investing", but home-ownership.

Once again a bit unfair. Are we talking about the returns going back to the beginning of the boom or the returns since he started warning of housing overvaluation? Seems only fair to compare the gains since GT started warning on RE. No one worth listening to could possibly have believed RE in most Canadian cities was overvalued in 2000. The fundamentals simply don't support that notion.
So in the name of fairness, you'd have to compare the NET returns since GT started warning (2008? Early 2009?) with RE returns over that same time frame, net of expenses. It's not a slam dunk by any means.
All that said, it's clear the housing bears have been wrong, but it's a bit of a stretch to say that GT has caused potential buyers to leave huge potential gains on the table without accounting for portfolio returns and much more importantly, the risk-adjusted returns of each approach. And I'd reiterate my earlier question: What should be a reasonable 'statute of limitation' on predictions?
 
 
RYAN MCGOVERN
Senior Buzzer
reply 642 vote 117
 
 
Garth Turner is the Harold Camping of real estate.
 
 
MARCO DIFOTI
Senior Buzzer
reply 550 vote 45
 
 
Looks like Capital Economics is calling for a 25% correction, for the third year in a row! Read up: http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/25/canadian-housing-looks-to-be-in-soft-landing-but-actually-heading-for-25-crash-capital-economics/
Time for Capital Economics to issue an apology as well!
 
 
MARCO DIFOTI
Senior Buzzer
reply 550 vote 45
 
 
2
An other year comes to a close, and again the real-estate market in Toronto is up 11% year over year.

An other year comes to a close, and again the condo market in Toronto is up 10% year over year.  

Sorry Garth, an other year, wrong.
 
 
MATTHEW SLUTSKY
Senior Buzzer
reply 2299 vote 171
 
 
We are now in 2014, and this thread was started in 2011. Still, the real-estate market is booming in Canada.
 
 
HENRY TOAD
NewBee
reply 1
 
 
We are now 6 months into 2014. The markets where the masses want (need?) to live remain, incredibly to GT and many others, buoyant.

As for GT and whether he should apologize for being wrong 8 years in a row, whatever. Certainly, he is not entitled to quite as big a swagger as he would if it popped in 2010.

What's really interesting to note is how he has, for at least a good year now, stopped alluding to his famous Caledon "bunker" and his brawny, hairy-legged entourage of presumably libidinous "Amazons" that prompt Dorothy to sleep with one eye open. A commenter above referred to Garth as an end-of-the-world type, a prepper/doomer/survivalist, etc., and I think that legit crit started to become a pea under his intellectual pillow, so he kicked the Amazons out and sold the bunker.

And for the record, I'm with Garth. There's a ton of CMHC-insured leverage out there, with much of it higher than 5:1, or subprime. When the tide finally does go out, we'll see who's wearing what...
 
 
 
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